Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4342 LGA 13:15 → AVL 15:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 4607 LGA 16:15 → AVL 18:26 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4342 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:15	AVL 15:27	12%	4%	1.5%	80%
AA 4607 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:15	AVL 18:26	19%	7%	1.7%	59%
DL 5025 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 09:37	AVL 11:40	20%	7%	1.9%	80%
DL 4665 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 16:44	AVL 19:00	31%	16%	7.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON