Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4364 at 08:27 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 4364 LGA 08:27 → BNA 10:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 2448 LGA 17:30 → BNA 19:25 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4364 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:27	BNA 10:05	7%	2%	1.0%	88%
DL 5688 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:10	BNA 08:45	8%	2%	1.0%	89%
WN 2447 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 07:25	BNA 08:50	8%	2%	0.9%	78%
AA 2302 American Flight history →	LGA 12:00	BNA 13:33	15%	6%	0.9%	76%
DL 2748 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:55	BNA 15:31	16%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 4372 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:43	BNA 16:24	18%	4%	1.1%	77%
WN 470 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 11:05	BNA 12:30	20%	4%	0.9%	65%
AA 4392 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:59	BNA 21:43	21%	7%	1.2%	63%
WN 2449 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 19:45	BNA 21:30	30%	14%	1.1%	68%
WN 2448 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 17:30	BNA 19:25	31%	16%	1.0%	53%
DL 5438 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:30	BNA 12:00	22%	10%	1.9%	78%
DL 4723 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:15	BNA 21:00	37%	21%	20.8%	63%
DL 5002 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:27	BNA 19:19	38%	18%	15.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON