Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5852 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 5852 LGA 06:00 → BOS 07:15 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 5746 LGA 18:59 → BOS 20:45 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5852 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:00	BOS 07:15	4%	1%	0.9%	95%
AA 4377 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:00	BOS 07:20	4%	1%	0.9%	92%
DL 5793 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:59	BOS 08:23	4%	2%	1.0%	96%
DL 5759 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:00	BOS 09:19	7%	2%	1.0%	88%
AA 4373 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:59	BOS 10:19	8%	2%	0.9%	87%
AA 4367 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:30	BOS 11:53	10%	3%	0.9%	89%
DL 5785 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:00	BOS 10:23	10%	2%	0.9%	75%
DL 5728 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:00	BOS 11:23	10%	3%	0.9%	86%
DL 5745 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:00	BOS 12:22	12%	3%	0.9%	81%
AA 4375 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:09	BOS 13:33	13%	3%	0.9%	76%
DL 5761 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:00	BOS 13:21	13%	3%	0.9%	80%
DL 5758 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:00	BOS 14:23	15%	5%	0.9%	80%
DL 5739 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:00	BOS 15:29	15%	5%	1.0%	80%
DL 5751 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:00	BOS 22:33	20%	8%	1.4%	68%
DL 5727 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:00	BOS 16:33	20%	7%	0.9%	63%
AA 4370 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:17	BOS 16:42	20%	7%	1.0%	58%
DL 5819 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:00	BOS 17:37	21%	9%	1.0%	58%
AA 4768 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:10	BOS 22:33	22%	8%	1.4%	63%
DL 5850 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:00	BOS 21:39	24%	9%	1.2%	60%
DL 2801 Delta Flight history →	LGA 21:59	BOS 23:31	26%	11%	0.7%	47%
AA 4404 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:10	BOS 21:33	27%	9%	1.2%	45%
DL 5725 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:00	BOS 18:40	27%	9%	1.0%	69%
DL 5738 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:00	BOS 19:40	28%	11%	1.1%	65%
AA 4374 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:59	BOS 19:28	29%	10%	1.0%	73%
DL 5746 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	BOS 20:45	29%	10%	1.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON