Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4379 at 09:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4379 LGA 09:07 → BUF 10:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 4521 LGA 19:29 → BUF 21:07 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4379 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:07	BUF 10:40	9%	2%	1.1%	84%
AA 4378 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:50	BUF 17:28	18%	6%	1.4%	67%
AA 4521 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:29	BUF 21:07	20%	8%	1.3%	74%
DL 5366 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 07:45	BUF 09:13	17%	6%	2.4%	83%
DL 5362 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 12:18	BUF 13:50	20%	6%	6.7%	80%
DL 5380 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:45	BUF 17:30	34%	19%	11.1%	66%
DL 5397 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 21:59	BUF 23:32	39%	20%	15.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON