tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2464 2h 45m Chicago MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741 9h 25m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:05 → DAL 08:35WN 2341 3h 20m Dallas DAL 11:55 → BUR 13:05WN 4076 10h 00m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:55 → DEN 09:05WN 2454 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:45 → BUR 13:20WN 579 9h 25m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:40 → DEN 09:55UA 2154 1h 20m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 8h 08m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 55m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:56 → BUR 12:05AA 1617 8h 35m 97% 74%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 11:05 → BNA 12:30WN 470 3h 10m Nashville BNA 15:40 → BUR 17:55WN 461 9h 50m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:20 → DEN 17:56UA 1729 1h 17m Denver DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411 8h 23m 87% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → LGA 16:25 → DEN 19:05WN 2456 1h 20m Denver DEN 20:25 → BUR 21:55WN 1497 8h 30m 73% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON