tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Boston, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → BOS 07:15DL 5852 · flown by Republic 3h 55m Boston BOS 11:10 → BWI 12:53DL 5668 · flown by Republic 6h 53m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2464 1h 35m Chicago MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45WN 1355 5h 45m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:00 → BOS 12:22DL 5745 · flown by Republic 3h 28m Boston BOS 15:50 → BWI 17:42DL 5644 · flown by Republic 6h 42m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:30 → MCI 08:30WN 576 1h 30m Kansas City MCI 10:00 → BWI 13:25WN 1037 6h 55m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 7h 01m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 42m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822 1h 51m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 6h 36m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 07:25 → BNA 08:50WN 2447 3h 15m Nashville BNA 12:05 → BWI 14:55WN 1345 7h 30m 100% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → LGA 17:30 → BNA 19:25WN 2448 1h 05m Nashville BNA 20:30 → BWI 23:20WN 468 5h 50m 70% 53%
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:55 → MIA 20:22AA 605 50m Miami MIA 21:12 → BWI 23:52AA 3216 6h 57m 59% 39%
JetBlueDetails → LGA 16:29 → FLL 19:43B6 1171 1h 16m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:59 → BWI 23:27B6 2994 6h 58m 66% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON