Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4614 LGA 09:10 → CHS 11:35 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 5591 LGA 15:12 → CHS 17:41 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4614 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:10	CHS 11:35	12%	3%	1.5%	87%
AA 4588 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:59	CHS 17:23	21%	6%	1.8%	80%
DL 1404 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	CHS 14:47	22%	5%	1.3%	68%
DL 5591 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:12	CHS 17:41	22%	6%	1.6%	65%
DL 5437 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:30	CHS 10:44	17%	7%	3.6%	83%
DL 4676 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:32	CHS 22:02	36%	22%	9.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON