Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4387 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4387 LGA 08:16 → CLE 10:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 4722 LGA 20:29 → CLE 22:23 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4387 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:16	CLE 10:04	6%	2%	0.8%	87%
AA 4388 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:40	CLE 13:29	11%	3%	0.8%	82%
AA 4722 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:29	CLE 22:23	23%	7%	1.2%	64%
DL 5190 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 07:59	CLE 09:47	16%	7%	4.5%	84%
DL 5045 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:25	CLE 12:14	20%	10%	3.9%	80%
DL 5242 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:40	CLE 15:34	24%	9%	4.6%	76%
DL 4974 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:30	CLE 22:35	33%	17%	13.7%	67%
DL 5194 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:14	CLE 19:19	34%	17%	6.1%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON