Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3084 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 3084 LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3133 LGA 16:45 → CLT 19:17 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3084 American Flight history →	LGA 06:00	CLT 07:58	5%	2%	0.9%	96%
AA 3279 American Flight history →	LGA 06:52	CLT 08:54	7%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 1023 American Flight history →	LGA 07:55	CLT 10:01	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 2043 American Flight history →	LGA 09:58	CLT 12:04	12%	4%	0.9%	81%
AA 1150 American Flight history →	LGA 12:10	CLT 14:14	14%	5%	0.8%	84%
DL 5828 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:06	CLT 16:23	14%	5%	0.8%	72%
AA 2033 American Flight history →	LGA 14:31	CLT 16:53	16%	8%	1.1%	64%
DL 5818 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:10	CLT 21:46	19%	6%	1.1%	63%
AA 1320 American Flight history →	LGA 17:00	CLT 19:18	24%	11%	1.1%	62%
AA 1942 American Flight history →	LGA 18:15	CLT 20:33	24%	12%	1.2%	67%
F9 3133 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 16:45	CLT 19:17	38%	15%	1.5%	60%
DL 5068 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 06:51	CLT 08:56	12%	4%	8.5%	88%
DL 5046 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:50	CLT 13:57	20%	8%	7.0%	80%
DL 5051 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 09:00	CLT 11:10	21%	6%	6.0%	79%
DL 5047 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:06	CLT 19:32	32%	17%	9.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON