Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4398 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4398 LGA 06:45 → CMH 08:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 4680 LGA 19:53 → CMH 21:53 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4398 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:45	CMH 08:38	5%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 5686 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:30	CMH 09:19	8%	2%	0.8%	86%
AA 4394 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:17	CMH 15:16	11%	4%	0.8%	81%
DL 5675 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:25	CMH 16:22	14%	5%	0.8%	82%
AA 4462 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:29	CMH 19:38	20%	7%	0.9%	77%
DL 5671 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:30	CMH 19:42	20%	8%	0.9%	75%
DL 5681 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:55	CMH 22:03	20%	8%	0.9%	71%
AA 4680 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:53	CMH 21:53	20%	8%	0.9%	67%
DL 4649 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:56	CMH 13:45	44%	18%	6.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON