Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4612 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 4612 LGA 06:00 → DCA 07:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 1825 LGA 21:20 → DCA 22:58 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4612 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:00	DCA 07:20	5%	2%	0.9%	88%
DL 5770 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DCA 07:23	5%	2%	0.9%	89%
AA 4491 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:43	DCA 09:13	9%	2%	0.9%	83%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:50	DCA 10:15	10%	2%	0.8%	83%
AA 4393 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:03	DCA 10:32	10%	2%	0.8%	84%
AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:47	DCA 12:17	13%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 5749 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:20	DCA 12:42	16%	4%	0.9%	78%
AA 4590 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:28	DCA 14:56	18%	5%	0.9%	43%
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:40	DCA 16:19	22%	6%	1.1%	61%
AA 4685 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:09	DCA 16:46	24%	6%	1.1%	52%
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:15	DCA 20:59	25%	10%	1.3%	50%
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:15	DCA 18:59	25%	9%	1.1%	62%
AA 4719 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:50	DCA 21:26	26%	10%	1.3%	64%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:20	DCA 18:58	26%	8%	1.1%	76%
DL 1825 Delta Flight history →	LGA 21:20	DCA 22:58	31%	11%	0.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON