Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2454 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2454 LGA 06:55 → DEN 09:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2457 LGA 20:55 → DEN 23:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2454 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 06:55	DEN 09:05	8%	2%	0.7%	80%
UA 2154 United Flight history →	LGA 07:40	DEN 09:55	9%	2%	0.6%	67%
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:45	DEN 09:53	11%	3%	0.8%	84%
UA 716 United Flight history →	LGA 10:00	DEN 12:20	13%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 2200 United Flight history →	LGA 12:25	DEN 14:39	13%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 1729 United Flight history →	LGA 15:20	DEN 17:56	19%	7%	0.6%	63%
UA 2046 United Flight history →	LGA 18:29	DEN 21:02	20%	7%	0.7%	71%
WN 1228 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 10:20	DEN 12:40	21%	3%	0.7%	65%
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:55	DEN 16:14	22%	6%	0.8%	71%
UA 2834 United Flight history →	LGA 16:59	DEN 19:35	22%	8%	0.6%	60%
DL 710 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	DEN 21:35	25%	9%	0.9%	61%
WN 2455 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 14:00	DEN 16:20	31%	8%	0.8%	51%
WN 2456 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 16:25	DEN 19:05	34%	10%	0.9%	41%
WN 2457 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 20:55	DEN 23:30	35%	9%	0.9%	36%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510	1h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → DEN 10:03DL 2849	6h 03m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	LGA 07:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2465	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 09:55 → DEN 11:30WN 2654	6h 05m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927	6h 10m	93%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON