Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1597 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1597 LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 3423 LGA 22:55 → DFW 01:34 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1597 American Flight history →	LGA 06:30	DFW 09:23	6%	3%	1.3%	89%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	DFW 09:35	9%	5%	1.0%	78%
AA 1987 American Flight history →	LGA 08:35	DFW 11:25	12%	4%	1.3%	81%
AA 3289 American Flight history →	LGA 07:30	DFW 10:23	12%	4%	1.3%	77%
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:30	DFW 12:09	12%	4%	0.9%	82%
AA 3068 American Flight history →	LGA 10:00	DFW 12:54	13%	4%	1.2%	80%
AA 1166 American Flight history →	LGA 11:15	DFW 14:11	13%	5%	1.3%	79%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DFW 15:10	14%	5%	0.9%	75%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	LGA 14:00	DFW 17:05	16%	8%	1.3%	65%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	LGA 13:08	DFW 15:58	17%	7%	1.3%	71%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	DFW 18:01	20%	9%	0.9%	65%
AA 1043 American Flight history →	LGA 15:00	DFW 18:05	22%	9%	1.4%	61%
AA 1608 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	DFW 19:15	23%	9%	1.3%	63%
AA 3103 American Flight history →	LGA 17:01	DFW 20:10	26%	10%	1.4%	60%
AA 3323 American Flight history →	LGA 19:59	DFW 23:05	26%	10%	1.4%	67%
DL 352 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:55	DFW 22:02	27%	12%	1.0%	55%
AA 1571 American Flight history →	LGA 18:47	DFW 21:50	32%	11%	1.4%	58%
AA 2388 American Flight history →	LGA 18:00	DFW 21:00	34%	11%	1.4%	46%
F9 3423 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 22:55	DFW 01:34	37%	14%	2.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON