Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Des Moines on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4395 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:29	DSM 20:51	29%	13%	0.8%	67%
DL 4904 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:02	DSM 19:15	35%	18%	5.8%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2464	2h 50m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → DSM 11:30WN 1771	6h 30m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	5h 45m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:59 → ATL 09:20DL 342	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	7h 35m	99%	90%
American Details →	LGA 07:23 → ORD 09:09AA 392	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 11:29 → DSM 13:04AA 4676 · flown by Republic	6h 41m	99%	87%
United Details →	LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 12:59 → DSM 14:27UA 1781	8h 06m	100%	85%
United Details →	LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389	53m Chicago	ORD 08:42 → DSM 10:17UA 1803	5h 07m	92%	83%
Southwest Details →	LGA 06:55 → DEN 09:05WN 2454	55m Denver	DEN 10:00 → DSM 12:50WN 1524	6h 55m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	7h 53m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 19:25 → ORD 21:35AA 3318	56m Chicago	ORD 22:31 → DSM 00:01 +1AA 4442 · flown by Republic	5h 36m	74%	62%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	51m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306	6h 29m	74%	60%
American Details →	LGA 18:00 → DFW 21:00AA 2388	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:05 → DSM 23:59AA 1371	6h 59m	67%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON