Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1231 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1231 LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 1014 LGA 20:30 → DTW 22:51 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1231 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DTW 07:55	6%	3%	0.9%	96%
AA 4415 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:03	DTW 10:08	9%	3%	0.9%	87%
DL 1078 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:25	DTW 11:24	11%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 4630 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:45	DTW 16:50	16%	5%	0.9%	79%
DL 1122 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:55	DTW 14:51	17%	5%	0.8%	81%
DL 308 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:29	DTW 16:34	17%	5%	0.8%	79%
DL 999 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	DTW 19:39	24%	8%	0.8%	74%
AA 4598 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:44	DTW 22:49	27%	8%	1.1%	67%
DL 1014 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:30	DTW 22:51	27%	8%	1.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON