tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 48m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2464 1h 20m Chicago MDW 08:40 → ECP 10:50WN 2773 5h 50m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 6h 54m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:59 → ATL 09:20DL 342 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:31DL 1359 6h 32m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → LGA 07:23 → ORD 09:09AA 392 3h 21m Chicago ORD 12:30 → ECP 15:03AA 4534 · flown by Republic 8h 40m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:30 → MCI 08:30WN 576 2h 10m Kansas City MCI 10:40 → ECP 12:45WN 2552 7h 15m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:00 → ATL 12:28DL 989 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 7h 12m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053 6h 56m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON