Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 1071 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–48%.

Safest bet that day B6 1071 LGA 06:00 → FLL 09:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 571 LGA 20:50 → FLL 23:59 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1071 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 06:00	FLL 09:00	9%	3%	1.7%	88%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:20	FLL 10:22	11%	3%	1.4%	81%
AA 2490 American Flight history →	LGA 07:57	FLL 11:08	12%	4%	1.5%	80%
B6 1471 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:30	FLL 10:35	16%	5%	1.7%	82%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:55	FLL 13:54	19%	5%	1.2%	75%
B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 12:00	FLL 15:03	28%	11%	1.5%	61%
DL 2308 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:29	FLL 22:52	29%	13%	4.5%	66%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:30	FLL 19:56	30%	13%	2.2%	66%
AA 3196 American Flight history →	LGA 15:55	FLL 19:10	32%	11%	2.1%	50%
B6 471 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 15:40	FLL 18:53	38%	15%	1.9%	61%
B6 1171 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 16:29	FLL 19:43	41%	19%	3.6%	62%
B6 571 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 20:50	FLL 23:59	48%	19%	5.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON