Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5661 LGA 09:25 → GRR 11:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 5659 LGA 21:00 → GRR 23:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5661 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:25	GRR 11:40	11%	3%	1.0%	87%
AA 4418 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:30	GRR 12:44	13%	4%	1.0%	81%
DL 5659 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:00	GRR 23:24	20%	8%	1.5%	74%
DL 5104 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 14:45	GRR 17:07	28%	15%	5.1%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON