Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5862 at 11:42 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 5862 LGA 11:42 → GSO 13:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 4577 LGA 20:59 → GSO 22:53 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5862 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:42	GSO 13:42	10%	5%	0.9%	82%
AA 4483 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:19	GSO 10:08	10%	3%	0.9%	72%
AA 4421 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:40	GSO 17:47	17%	8%	1.1%	62%
AA 4577 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:59	GSO 22:53	20%	9%	1.2%	72%
DL 5125 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 07:30	GSO 09:20	17%	4%	5.8%	83%
DL 5107 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 16:15	GSO 18:22	31%	12%	7.7%	69%
DL 5118 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:35	GSO 22:51	36%	24%	22.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON