Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4422 LGA 08:03 → GSP 10:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 4423 LGA 15:08 → GSP 17:29 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4422 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:03	GSP 10:15	12%	3%	1.2%	85%
AA 4423 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:08	GSP 17:29	21%	6%	1.3%	68%
DL 4994 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:04	GSP 10:12	18%	4%	5.2%	82%
DL 4996 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:15	GSP 22:35	29%	15%	11.6%	71%
DL 5463 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 12:40	GSP 14:51	30%	12%	3.4%	70%
DL 5004 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:10	GSP 17:30	34%	14%	5.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON