Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 5618 at 09:00, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5618 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:00	HHH 11:24	10%	3%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hilton Head Island on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 14:11 → HHH 15:29DL 5830 · flown by Republic	7h 29m	100%	88%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → DCA 07:20AA 4612 · flown by Republic	1h 19m Washington	DCA 08:39 → HHH 10:37AA 4515 · flown by Republic	4h 37m	98%	88%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	3h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → HHH 12:20AA 3582 · flown by Envoy	6h 20m	98%	85%
American Details →	LGA 07:55 → CLT 10:01AA 1023	2h 59m Charlotte	CLT 13:00 → HHH 14:16AA 3562 · flown by Envoy	6h 21m	99%	85%
United Details →	LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → HHH 14:21UA 3581 · flown by Republic	7h 00m	100%	83%
American Details →	LGA 09:58 → CLT 12:04AA 2043	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 15:09 → HHH 16:25AA 3560 · flown by Envoy	6h 27m	99%	83%
American Details →	LGA 06:40 → ORD 08:26AA 462	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → HHH 13:33AA 3862 · flown by Envoy	6h 53m	97%	82%
American Details →	LGA 06:52 → CLT 08:54AA 3279	1h 03m Charlotte	CLT 09:57 → HHH 11:17AA 3563 · flown by Envoy	4h 25m	93%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON