Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4572 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4572 LGA 08:30 → HOU 11:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 2460 LGA 17:40 → HOU 20:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4572 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 08:30	HOU 11:15	11%	3%	1.5%	81%
WN 1711 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 10:30	HOU 13:20	16%	4%	2.0%	87%
WN 4861 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 13:40	HOU 16:30	23%	7%	1.7%	54%
WN 2460 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 17:40	HOU 20:55	28%	15%	1.1%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON