Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4565 at 11:40, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4565 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:40	HYA 12:56	10%	2%	0.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hyannis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LGA 07:43 → DCA 09:13AA 4491 · flown by Republic	2h 43m Washington	DCA 11:56 → HYA 13:36AA 4557 · flown by Republic	5h 53m	100%	87%
American Details →	LGA 10:47 → DCA 12:17AA 4654 · flown by Republic	3h 42m Washington	DCA 15:59 → HYA 17:39AA 4555 · flown by Republic	6h 52m	100%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON