Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2371 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2371 LGA 06:00 → IAH 08:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2109 LGA 18:29 → IAH 21:44 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2371 United Flight history →	LGA 06:00	IAH 08:44	8%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:05	IAH 09:49	11%	4%	0.9%	89%
UA 1957 United Flight history →	LGA 07:29	IAH 10:13	13%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 2617 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	IAH 13:06	15%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 692 United Flight history →	LGA 12:31	IAH 15:22	16%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 1794 United Flight history →	LGA 15:38	IAH 18:46	19%	7%	0.6%	62%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	19%	6%	0.6%	64%
DL 2930 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:50	IAH 16:44	19%	7%	0.8%	73%
UA 2189 United Flight history →	LGA 20:17	IAH 23:15	19%	8%	0.7%	69%
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:50	IAH 13:32	20%	4%	0.8%	76%
UA 1066 United Flight history →	LGA 17:54	IAH 20:52	23%	10%	0.6%	50%
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:29	IAH 21:44	23%	11%	0.8%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	55m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	5h 33m	88%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON