Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4428 at 08:39 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4428 LGA 08:39 → ILM 10:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 4792 LGA 19:59 → ILM 22:01 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4428 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:39	ILM 10:40	9%	2%	0.8%	81%
AA 4429 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ILM 18:02	20%	6%	1.2%	70%
AA 4792 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:59	ILM 22:01	22%	8%	1.4%	71%
DL 5186 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:53	ILM 10:50	20%	9%	3.0%	80%
DL 5212 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 14:29	ILM 16:42	27%	15%	5.9%	73%
DL 5204 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:30	ILM 22:44	38%	21%	10.5%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON