Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4601 at 09:23 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4601 LGA 09:23 → IND 11:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 4458 LGA 18:59 → IND 21:29 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4601 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:23	IND 11:53	8%	3%	0.8%	80%
DL 5642 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:45	IND 14:06	12%	4%	0.8%	85%
DL 5646 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:43	IND 17:13	14%	7%	0.8%	83%
AA 4600 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:29	IND 16:50	15%	6%	0.9%	78%
DL 5635 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:42	IND 20:24	19%	8%	0.9%	74%
DL 5696 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:55	IND 22:33	20%	9%	1.0%	58%
AA 4793 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:40	IND 20:12	20%	9%	0.9%	75%
AA 4458 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	IND 21:29	23%	9%	1.0%	75%
DL 4883 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:15	IND 10:30	15%	2%	4.2%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON