Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5848 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 5848 LGA 08:10 → JAX 10:43 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 4674 LGA 18:59 → JAX 21:47 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5848 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:10	JAX 10:43	12%	2%	1.3%	83%
DL 5791 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:15	JAX 23:11	23%	8%	2.7%	67%
AA 4674 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	JAX 21:47	26%	8%	2.3%	58%
DL 5461 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 12:39	JAX 15:19	35%	15%	2.1%	65%
DL 5471 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:29	JAX 18:18	39%	18%	9.5%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON