tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 10h 23m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → BOS 07:15DL 5852 · flown by Republic 3h 40m Boston BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004 11h 03m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 12m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473 3h 09m Minneapolis MSP 13:02 → LAX 14:54DL 1651 9h 59m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:05 → IAD 07:31UA 3656 · flown by Republic 1h 39m Dulles IAD 09:10 → LAX 11:39UA 1868 8h 34m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326 10h 05m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → DCA 07:20AA 4612 · flown by Republic 1h 20m Washington DCA 08:40 → LAX 11:19AA 1966 8h 19m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 10h 17m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 19:25 → ORD 21:35AA 3318 55m Chicago ORD 22:30 → LAX 00:52 +1AA 1209 8h 27m 73% 51%
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:00 → BOS 19:40DL 5738 · flown by Republic 50m Boston BOS 20:30 → LAX 23:51DL 321 8h 51m 67% 49%
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:59 → MIA 18:30DL 2300 47m Miami MIA 19:17 → LAX 21:49DL 450 9h 50m 60% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON