Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Little Rock on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4644 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:40	LIT 21:13	27%	10%	1.2%	68%
DL 4902 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:29	LIT 19:45	37%	18%	6.4%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:19 → LIT 12:49DL 1347	7h 49m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → LIT 15:12DL 3027	7h 12m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	LGA 06:05 → DAL 08:35WN 2341	1h 00m Dallas	DAL 09:35 → LIT 10:45WN 4403	5h 40m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:59 → ATL 09:20DL 342	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → LIT 11:03DL 3040	5h 04m	95%	86%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → LIT 12:45AA 4146 · flown by Envoy	7h 45m	99%	86%
American Details →	LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597	2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:56 → LIT 13:18AA 3636 · flown by Envoy	7h 48m	99%	85%
American Details →	LGA 07:23 → ORD 09:09AA 392	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 11:45 → LIT 13:41AA 3398 · flown by Envoy	7h 18m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → LIT 23:41DL 2083	8h 41m	100%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 17:01 → DFW 20:10AA 3103	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:11 → LIT 22:35AA 4079 · flown by Envoy	6h 34m	74%	60%
American Details →	LGA 18:00 → DFW 21:00AA 2388	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:04 → LIT 23:23AA 3362 · flown by Envoy	6h 23m	67%	54%
Southwest Details →	LGA 19:45 → BNA 21:30WN 2449	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 22:40 → LIT 23:55WN 4687	5h 10m	70%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON