Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 576 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 576 LGA 06:30 → MCI 08:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 4946 LGA 21:25 → MCI 23:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 576 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 06:30	MCI 08:30	5%	2%	1.0%	83%
DL 572 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:30	MCI 09:37	8%	3%	0.9%	82%
DL 2068 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCI 17:59	22%	10%	0.9%	60%
DL 563 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCI 22:21	27%	12%	1.1%	67%
WN 4970 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 15:40	MCI 18:00	28%	10%	1.1%	61%
WN 4946 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 21:25	MCI 23:40	33%	14%	1.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON