Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1164 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 1164 LGA 07:00 → MCO 09:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 699 LGA 20:59 → MCO 23:52 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	7%	3%	10.3%	90%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:52	9%	3%	10.4%	89%
AA 3114 American Flight history →	LGA 07:30	MCO 10:22	10%	3%	10.0%	86%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	16%	5%	16.1%	80%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:55	17%	7%	15.2%	65%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCO 18:52	25%	10%	15.9%	62%
AA 2069 American Flight history →	LGA 14:57	MCO 17:52	27%	11%	17.6%	48%
DL 2540 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCO 23:03	30%	13%	16.1%	59%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:59	MCO 21:15	31%	11%	15.9%	68%
B6 399 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 14:29	MCO 17:28	33%	14%	16.0%	61%
F9 2615 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 20:29	MCO 23:32	41%	20%	18.2%	58%
B6 699 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 20:59	MCO 23:52	46%	21%	17.3%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON