Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2464 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2464 LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 2469 LGA 21:30 → MDW 23:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2464 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 06:00	MDW 07:20	7%	2%	1.0%	88%
WN 2465 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 07:25	MDW 08:50	10%	3%	1.0%	76%
WN 4573 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 10:55	MDW 12:15	19%	4%	1.1%	85%
WN 4996 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 13:25	MDW 14:50	23%	6%	1.0%	48%
WN 1095 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 15:25	MDW 17:05	24%	8%	1.1%	59%
WN 4746 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 17:30	MDW 19:20	30%	13%	1.1%	54%
WN 2469 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 21:30	MDW 23:00	33%	13%	1.3%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON