Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5773 at 13:35 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 5773 LGA 13:35 → MEM 15:31 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 4696 LGA 20:17 → MEM 22:11 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5773 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:35	MEM 15:31	16%	4%	1.0%	79%
AA 4461 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:51	MEM 15:47	16%	5%	1.0%	65%
DL 5775 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:15	MEM 22:29	25%	7%	1.2%	67%
AA 4696 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:17	MEM 22:11	26%	7%	1.2%	64%
DL 4903 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:40	MEM 10:36	18%	4%	6.9%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON