Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 1249 LGA 06:00 → MIA 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1620 LGA 17:50 → MIA 21:21 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1249 American Flight history →	LGA 06:00	MIA 09:15	6%	2%	1.7%	94%
AA 1530 American Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MIA 10:15	10%	3%	2.0%	88%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:10	MIA 10:19	11%	4%	1.8%	89%
AA 970 American Flight history →	LGA 07:59	MIA 11:14	13%	3%	1.8%	86%
AA 3211 American Flight history →	LGA 09:28	MIA 12:45	20%	4%	3.0%	76%
AA 2945 American Flight history →	LGA 11:00	MIA 14:11	26%	6%	2.9%	78%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:15	MIA 14:24	28%	6%	2.2%	77%
AA 3017 American Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MIA 19:06	28%	12%	2.3%	72%
AA 1643 American Flight history →	LGA 13:00	MIA 16:14	28%	9%	2.3%	67%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:59	MIA 18:30	29%	12%	1.9%	63%
DL 2382 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MIA 23:22	31%	15%	2.2%	59%
AA 605 American Flight history →	LGA 16:55	MIA 20:22	33%	15%	2.8%	68%
AA 1576 American Flight history →	LGA 19:29	MIA 22:48	33%	14%	2.1%	50%
AA 716 American Flight history →	LGA 18:24	MIA 21:48	35%	14%	2.6%	48%
DL 1620 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:50	MIA 21:21	38%	15%	2.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON