Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2411 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2411 LGA 07:15 → MSY 09:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 2470 LGA 16:45 → MSY 19:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2411 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:15	MSY 09:25	7%	3%	1.1%	91%
AA 2165 American Flight history →	LGA 14:29	MSY 16:56	20%	11%	1.7%	63%
DL 2405 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:30	MSY 18:55	24%	9%	2.5%	68%
WN 2470 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 16:45	MSY 19:20	28%	15%	2.6%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON