Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5662 LGA 09:45 → MVY 11:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4528 LGA 17:24 → MVY 18:39 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5662 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:45	MVY 11:01	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 5822 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:45	MVY 14:59	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 4570 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:07	MVY 13:21	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 4528 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:24	MVY 18:39	14%	5%	0.7%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON