tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2194 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2194 Delta Flight history → LGA 08:05 MYR 10:01 12% 3% 0.7% 84%
AA 4335 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 20:13 MYR 22:20 23% 9% 1.1% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 3h 22m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 6h 36m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 07:25 → BNA 08:50WN 2447 2h 10m Nashville BNA 11:00 → MYR 13:25WN 2412 6h 00m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → DCA 07:20AA 4612 · flown by Republic 2h 24m Washington DCA 09:44 → MYR 11:22AA 5300 · flown by PSA 5h 22m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 7h 00m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 12:56 → MYR 16:40DL 2327 8h 45m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822 2h 00m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MYR 14:19UA 1332 6h 58m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2464 50m Chicago MDW 08:10 → MYR 11:20WN 1695 5h 20m 89% 80%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231 50m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145 4h 34m 90% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON