tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4470 at 13:37, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4470 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 13:37 OKC 16:23 15% 5% 1.2% 78%
DL 5199 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record LGA 18:15 OKC 21:10 38% 18% 4.5% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2464 2h 50m Chicago MDW 10:10 → OKC 12:15WN 4114 7h 15m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020 7h 12m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:15 → IAH 13:06UA 2617 3h 29m Houston IAH 16:35 → OKC 18:15UA 6334 · flown by Mesa 9h 00m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → OKC 11:56AA 3731 · flown by Envoy 6h 26m 96% 84%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:05 → DAL 08:35WN 2341 2h 10m Dallas DAL 10:45 → OKC 11:45WN 4128 6h 40m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084 3h 23m Charlotte CLT 11:21 → OKC 13:05AA 2220 8h 05m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822 3h 45m Chicago ORD 12:45 → OKC 15:17UA 5999 · flown by SkyWest 8h 56m 100% 82%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:55 → DEN 09:05WN 2454 1h 35m Denver DEN 10:40 → OKC 13:15WN 1652 7h 20m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → LGA 16:25 → DEN 19:05WN 2456 1h 00m Denver DEN 20:05 → OKC 22:45WN 175 7h 20m 66% 47%
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:47 → DFW 21:50AA 1571 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → OKC 23:59AA 2734 6h 12m 69% 46%
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:55 → MIA 20:22AA 605 50m Miami MIA 21:12 → OKC 23:34AA 3680 · flown by Envoy 7h 39m 59% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON