Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2896 at 14:30, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2896 LGA 14:30 → OMA 16:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2896 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 14:30	OMA 16:55	26%	8%	0.8%	59%
DL 5415 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:30	OMA 10:50	23%	8%	5.1%	77%
DL 5102 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:59	OMA 16:19	27%	10%	13.1%	73%
DL 4900 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 21:05	OMA 23:35	29%	14%	11.2%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078	51m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → OMA 13:22DL 3762 · flown by SkyWest	4h 57m	83%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON