tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LGA 07:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2465 2h 55m Chicago MDW 11:45 → ONT 13:50WN 2846 9h 25m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:40 → DEN 09:55UA 2154 1h 30m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 07m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 58m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 94% 81%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:55 → DEN 09:05WN 2454 1h 50m Denver DEN 10:55 → ONT 12:10WN 4080 8h 15m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674 3h 30m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 10h 55m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → LGA 15:25 → ORD 17:20UA 1504 2h 58m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 10h 26m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597 2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:22AA 2239 9h 52m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 10h 31m 100% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:47 → DFW 21:50AA 1571 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:52 → ONT 23:59AA 1534 8h 12m 68% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON