Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 34 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2389 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2389 LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1098 LGA 18:25 → ORD 20:12 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2389 United Flight history →	LGA 06:10	ORD 07:49	6%	2%	1.1%	89%
AA 462 American Flight history →	LGA 06:40	ORD 08:26	6%	3%	1.7%	93%
DL 2251 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	ORD 07:32	6%	4%	1.6%	93%
AA 589 American Flight history →	LGA 08:50	ORD 10:37	11%	4%	1.5%	76%
AA 392 American Flight history →	LGA 07:23	ORD 09:09	11%	3%	1.7%	87%
UA 1057 United Flight history →	LGA 09:10	ORD 10:56	11%	3%	1.1%	84%
UA 2822 United Flight history →	LGA 07:21	ORD 09:00	12%	3%	1.2%	83%
AA 3100 American Flight history →	LGA 09:44	ORD 11:30	12%	5%	1.5%	79%
DL 2985 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:45	ORD 10:23	12%	4%	1.1%	80%
UA 1310 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	ORD 11:57	13%	4%	1.0%	80%
AA 2079 American Flight history →	LGA 12:14	ORD 13:59	13%	6%	1.4%	76%
UA 623 United Flight history →	LGA 08:05	ORD 09:44	13%	3%	0.9%	81%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:30	ORD 09:06	13%	5%	1.1%	81%
UA 2635 United Flight history →	LGA 11:23	ORD 13:00	16%	5%	0.9%	74%
AA 1705 American Flight history →	LGA 14:11	ORD 16:05	17%	8%	1.6%	66%
AA 2057 American Flight history →	LGA 21:29	ORD 23:30	18%	8%	1.8%	55%
DL 2240 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:30	ORD 13:05	18%	6%	1.2%	74%
UA 714 United Flight history →	LGA 13:25	ORD 15:02	19%	6%	0.9%	71%
UA 1504 United Flight history →	LGA 15:25	ORD 17:20	19%	8%	1.1%	61%
UA 2199 United Flight history →	LGA 14:28	ORD 16:14	20%	7%	1.0%	74%
UA 1830 United Flight history →	LGA 21:25	ORD 22:58	22%	9%	1.3%	56%
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:45	ORD 16:30	22%	8%	1.1%	64%
UA 2768 United Flight history →	LGA 20:25	ORD 22:12	23%	9%	1.0%	47%
DL 2806 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:45	ORD 22:36	24%	11%	1.2%	59%
AA 3318 American Flight history →	LGA 19:25	ORD 21:35	24%	10%	1.6%	59%
DL 2503 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	ORD 19:10	25%	11%	1.1%	62%
AA 396 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:08	25%	9%	1.6%	64%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:00	ORD 18:03	25%	10%	1.1%	66%
AA 752 American Flight history →	LGA 17:29	ORD 19:43	25%	11%	1.6%	54%
UA 1156 United Flight history →	LGA 16:25	ORD 18:17	26%	10%	1.1%	53%
UA 2446 United Flight history →	LGA 19:25	ORD 21:12	26%	9%	1.2%	52%
UA 602 United Flight history →	LGA 17:25	ORD 19:12	28%	10%	0.9%	42%
DL 2513 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	ORD 20:56	28%	11%	1.3%	57%
UA 1098 United Flight history →	LGA 18:25	ORD 20:12	31%	10%	1.1%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON