Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4473 at 09:29 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 4473 LGA 09:29 → ORF 11:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 4589 LGA 20:29 → ORF 22:04 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4473 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:29	ORF 11:08	10%	2%	1.2%	90%
AA 4471 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:51	ORF 17:41	18%	6%	1.0%	72%
AA 4589 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:29	ORF 22:04	21%	8%	1.6%	66%
DL 5329 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 12:29	ORF 14:04	23%	11%	7.3%	77%
DL 5333 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:25	ORF 09:51	26%	10%	5.0%	74%
DL 5332 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:55	ORF 22:52	37%	13%	16.7%	63%
DL 5348 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 16:48	ORF 18:33	40%	16%	7.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON