Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2536 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–45%.

Safest bet that day DL 2536 LGA 07:00 → PBI 09:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1761 LGA 18:00 → PBI 21:05 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2536 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	PBI 09:49	11%	4%	1.7%	90%
B6 1461 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:15	PBI 10:10	14%	4%	1.7%	88%
AA 4475 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:40	PBI 14:48	20%	5%	5.5%	83%
DL 2396 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:20	PBI 14:15	23%	8%	4.0%	73%
DL 2410 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:29	PBI 22:46	32%	15%	2.4%	63%
DL 2460 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:10	PBI 18:32	33%	14%	3.8%	65%
B6 1761 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 18:00	PBI 21:05	45%	20%	3.4%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON