Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4420 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4420 LGA 07:00 → PIT 08:38 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 4410 LGA 20:29 → PIT 22:11 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4420 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:00	PIT 08:38	8%	2%	0.9%	79%
DL 5605 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:08	PIT 09:45	8%	2%	0.8%	85%
AA 4579 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:59	PIT 11:39	9%	2%	0.8%	82%
DL 5694 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:38	PIT 12:16	10%	2%	0.8%	86%
DL 5715 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:10	PIT 14:47	12%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 4479 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:29	PIT 15:04	13%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 5722 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:20	PIT 23:09	15%	5%	1.0%	72%
DL 5843 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:05	PIT 18:00	15%	5%	0.8%	82%
DL 5792 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:45	PIT 20:44	19%	6%	0.9%	79%
AA 4410 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:29	PIT 22:11	19%	5%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON