Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5156 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 09:30	PNS 11:31	19%	8%	4.2%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGA 06:05 → DAL 08:35WN 2341	1h 00m Dallas	DAL 09:35 → PNS 11:25WN 3796	6h 20m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	5h 51m	99%	86%
United Details →	LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 10:38 → PNS 13:07UA 2672	6h 46m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	6h 00m	100%	85%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	3h 24m Charlotte	CLT 11:22 → PNS 12:17AA 5349 · flown by PSA	7h 17m	99%	85%
American Details →	LGA 07:23 → ORD 09:09AA 392	2h 48m Chicago	ORD 11:57 → PNS 14:24AA 4023 · flown by Envoy	8h 01m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	7h 13m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	7h 04m	100%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 18:24 → MIA 21:48AA 716	1h 20m Miami	MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy	6h 35m	71%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON