Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4502 LGA 09:10 → PWM 10:33 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 5705 LGA 21:59 → PWM 23:30 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4502 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:10	PWM 10:33	13%	2%	0.8%	89%
AA 2931 American Flight history →	LGA 11:13	PWM 12:35	17%	4%	0.7%	92%
DL 5719 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:15	PWM 16:50	20%	6%	1.0%	68%
DL 5705 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:59	PWM 23:30	20%	6%	1.3%	71%
DL 5361 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:50	PWM 10:22	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
DL 5346 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:00	PWM 12:32	20%	7%	2.4%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON