Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4494 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 4494 LGA 06:30 → RDU 08:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 2969 LGA 19:23 → RDU 21:12 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4494 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:30	RDU 08:14	7%	3%	1.5%	98%
AA 4496 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:03	RDU 12:00	11%	4%	1.0%	93%
AA 4497 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:25	RDU 15:22	15%	5%	0.9%	77%
AA 4436 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:30	RDU 18:43	25%	9%	1.1%	69%
AA 2969 American Flight history →	LGA 19:23	RDU 21:12	43%	16%	1.1%	37%
DL 4956 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 06:06	RDU 07:50	25%	12%	7.0%	75%
DL 4666 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:35	RDU 10:24	25%	10%	3.8%	75%
DL 5108 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:40	RDU 15:32	27%	9%	2.8%	73%
DL 5109 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:30	RDU 17:35	29%	12%	8.0%	71%
DL 5502 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:20	RDU 13:12	32%	23%	3.6%	68%
DL 5101 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:11	RDU 19:19	37%	18%	14.7%	63%
DL 5442 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:50	RDU 21:57	44%	25%	25.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON