Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4486 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 4486 LGA 07:50 → RIC 09:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 4345 LGA 21:29 → RIC 22:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4486 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:50	RIC 09:32	8%	3%	1.0%	95%
DL 5664 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:15	RIC 08:55	9%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 4501 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:10	RIC 12:41	13%	4%	0.9%	84%
DL 5815 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:15	RIC 23:01	21%	8%	1.7%	78%
DL 5760 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:21	RIC 19:16	24%	10%	1.3%	72%
AA 4345 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:29	RIC 22:58	25%	8%	1.7%	67%
DL 5313 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:36	RIC 12:14	24%	8%	7.0%	76%
DL 5516 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:29	RIC 17:19	24%	8%	14.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON