tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 379 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 379 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:15 RSW 10:16 14% 3% 11.3% 86%
DL 2310 Delta Flight history → LGA 15:05 RSW 18:32 27% 12% 10.0% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822 1h 35m Chicago ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102 7h 23m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:00 → IAH 08:44UA 2371 3h 35m Houston IAH 12:19 → RSW 15:52UA 1361 9h 52m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 7h 27m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → LGA 11:23 → ORD 13:00UA 2635 3h 26m Chicago ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34UA 2618 9h 11m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:55 → MSP 17:06DL 2349 2h 23m Minneapolis MSP 19:29 → RSW 23:52DL 2268 8h 57m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 6h 35m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 3h 04m Detroit DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225 7h 57m 99% 67%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → RSW 17:06DL 402 9h 11m 98% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → LGA 11:05 → BNA 12:30WN 470 55m Nashville BNA 13:25 → RSW 16:30WN 657 5h 25m 74% 46%
AmericanDetails → LGA 15:00 → DFW 18:05AA 1043 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:51 → RSW 22:38AA 1267 7h 38m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON