Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4779 at 18:21, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4779 LGA 18:21 → SAV 20:54 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4779 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:21	SAV 20:54	25%	12%	1.4%	74%
DL 5267 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 09:00	SAV 11:25	19%	7%	3.9%	81%
DL 5398 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:45	SAV 22:16	39%	23%	18.4%	61%
DL 5178 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:34	SAV 18:10	40%	19%	6.5%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON